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CIMMYT Ethiopia
The emergence of wheat-blast disease in Bangladesh in the 2015-16 wheat (Triticum aestivum) crop threatens the food security of South Asia. As wheat is the second most important staple and India has been emerging as a net wheat exporter, a potential spread of the disease from Bangladesh to India could have devastating impacts on India’s overall food security. West Bengal state in eastern India shares a 2,217 km-long border with Bangladesh and has a similar agro-ecology in its nine border districts, enhancing the possibility that disease may enter India via West Bengal. The present study explores the possibility of a ‘wheat holiday’ policy in the nine border districts of West Bengal, India. Under the policy, farmers in these districts would stop wheat cultivation for a few years. The present study attempts to find economically feasible alternative crops to wheat by applying an ex ante assessment framework. Of the ten crops considered, only maize, lentils, gram (chick pea), urad (black gram), khesari (grass pea), rapeseed, mustard and potatoes are found to be feasible alternatives. Such substitution would need support to ease the transition including addressing the challenges related to the management of the alternative crops, ensuring adequate crop combinations and value chain development. Still, as wheat is a major staple, there is some urgency also to support further research on disease epidemiology and forecasting, as well as the development and dissemination of blast-resistant wheat varieties across South Asia