High-resolution CMIP6 climate projections for Ethiopia

High-resolution climate model projections for a range of emission scenarios are needed for designing regional and local adaptation strategies and planning in the context of climate change. To this end, the future climate simulations of global circulation models (GCMs) are the main sources of critical information. However, these simulations are not only coarse in resolution but also associated with biases and high uncertainty. To make the simulations useful for impact modeling at regional and local level, we utilized the bias correction constructed analogues with quantile mapping reordering (BCCAQ) statistical downscaling technique to produce a 10 km spatial resolution climate change projections database based on 16 CMIP6 GCMs under three different emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The downscaling strategy was evaluated using a perfect sibling approach and detailed results are presented by taking two contrasting (the worst and best performing models in the historical evaluation) GCMs as a showcase. The evaluation results demonstrate that the downscaling approach substantially reduced model biases and generated higher resolution daily data compared to the original GCM outputs. These downscaled data can serve as high-quality inputs for impact models, including agro-ecological models. Overall, the results of this study are expected to facilitate climate change impact assessment and model comparison research in Ethiopia.