Projecting food demand of Nepal: Implications for policy

This study projected the consumption demand of a few major food items of Nepal. On average, 62% of the total daily dietary energy of a Nepalese comes solely from cereals. As the economy of Nepal is rapidly emerging, and given that 25% of the total population of Nepal is still poor, this study projects the aggregate consumption demand for rice, wheat, maize and other cereals, pulses, vegetables, and fish and meat in Nepal by 2025 and 2030. Findings indicate that the consumption demand of the sampled commodities would increase with the GDP and population growth of the country. For example, by 2030, the demand for wheat, maize, and rice will increase by 63%, 46%, and 8%, respectively, from the consumption level in 2018/19. This study also demonstrates that the consumption demand for noncereal food items such as pulses, vegetables, meat and fish would also increase by 2030. Based on the findings, this study strongly suggests policymakers to invest both in cereal and noncereal subsectors of agriculture in Nepal to enhance the domestic production capacity. Investment in agricultural capacity enhancement can also reduce extreme poverty in Nepal, as more than 66% of the employed labor force in Nepal is currently engaged in agriculture.